Pair #963

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-MMCC

Will Matthew McCarty win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Matthew McCarty
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 90226

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthew McCarty wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MMCC

Valspar Championship: Will Matthew McCarty finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matthew McCarty
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2604

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matthew McCarty finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:13:56Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valspar Championship means finishing 1st, which is necessarily a top 10 finish. The reverse does not hold — top 10 does not require winning.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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