Pair #9626

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-ISC26-AWIS

ISCO Championship: Will Aaron Wise finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Aaron Wise
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3097

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.2600
Last: 0.7800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aaron Wise finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-ISC26-AWIS

ISCO Championship: Will Aaron Wise finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Aaron Wise
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1361

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.1100
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Aaron Wise finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2400 + ~$0.0148 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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