Pair #962

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MMCC

Valspar Championship: Will Matthew McCarty finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Matthew McCarty
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2604

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew McCarty finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MMCC

Valspar Championship: Will Matthew McCarty finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matthew McCarty
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 13111

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew McCarty finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:13:56Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 as well. The reverse does not hold — a top 20 finish does not require a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1000
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue