Pair #9619

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-ISC26-HTOW

ISCO Championship: Will Hugo Townsend finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Hugo Townsend
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 469

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hugo Townsend finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-ISC26-HTOW

ISCO Championship: Will Hugo Townsend finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Hugo Townsend
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 726

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.1900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Hugo Townsend finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.19% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200 + ~$0.0086 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.42% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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