Pair #9611

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-ISC26-PSTO

ISCO Championship: Will Preston Stout finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Preston Stout
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1145

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Preston Stout finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-ISC26-PSTO

ISCO Championship: Will Preston Stout finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Preston Stout
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 25564

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.2600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Preston Stout finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.89% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2100 + ~$0.0177 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.12% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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