Pair #9604

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-ISC26-TROS

ISCO Championship: Will Thomas Rosenmueller finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Thomas Rosenmueller
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 824

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Thomas Rosenmueller finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-ISC26-TROS

ISCO Championship: Will Thomas Rosenmueller finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Thomas Rosenmueller
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3705

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.7600
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Thomas Rosenmueller finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.91% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2200 + ~$0.0171 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.14% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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