Pair #96

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNBA-26-DEN

Will the Denver win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals?

Series: KXNBA
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-06-30T14:00:00Z
Volume: 8156281

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver win the 2026 Pro Basketball Finals, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNBANORTHWEST-25-DEN

Will Denver win the Pro Basketball Northwest Division Winner?

Series: KXNBANORTHWEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 16526

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Denver is the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Northwest Division Winner, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:01:10Z

Reasoning: Winning the NBA Finals does not logically require winning the Northwest Division — a team can reach and win the Finals as a non-division winner via wild card. And winning the Northwest Division does not imply winning the Finals. No necessary implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: 28.95% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9800
Days to maturity: 29
Hurdle yield: 4.22%
Excess yield: +24.73% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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