Pair #9587

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-ISC26-PNYH

ISCO Championship: Will Pontus Nyholm finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Pontus Nyholm
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1128

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Pontus Nyholm finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-ISC26-PNYH

ISCO Championship: Will Pontus Nyholm finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Pontus Nyholm
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1128

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.4100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Pontus Nyholm finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -78.25% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0400 + ~$0.0027 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -82.48% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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