Pair #9575

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-ISC26-TMER

ISCO Championship: Will Troy Merritt finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Troy Merritt
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 335

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Troy Merritt finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-ISC26-TMER

ISCO Championship: Will Troy Merritt finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Troy Merritt
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1611

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.4800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Troy Merritt finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -93.36% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0800 + ~$0.0052 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -97.59% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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