Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MMCG
Valspar Championship: Will Max McGreevy finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Max McGreevy
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1408
YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1100
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Max McGreevy finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MMCG
Valspar Championship: Will Max McGreevy finish top 20?
Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Max McGreevy
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6203
YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Max McGreevy finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:13:39Z
Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield:
N/A
Cost:
$1.1800
Days to maturity:
N/A
Hurdle yield:
N/A
Excess yield:
N/A