Pair #9569

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-ISC26-DMCC

ISCO Championship: Will Denny McCarthy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Denny McCarthy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3541

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9300
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denny McCarthy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-ISC26-DMCC

ISCO Championship: Will Denny McCarthy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Denny McCarthy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1536

YES ask: 0.3200
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denny McCarthy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2500 + ~$0.0198 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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