Pair #9539

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-ISC26-SJAE

ISCO Championship: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2524

YES ask: 0.5800
NO ask: 0.4800
Last: 0.5800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-ISC26-SJAE

ISCO Championship: Will Stephan Jaeger finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Stephan Jaeger
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3207

YES ask: 0.8000
NO ask: 0.2300
Last: 0.7600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stephan Jaeger finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2800 + ~$0.0287 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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