Pair #9522

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-ISC26-THOG

ISCO Championship: Will Tom Hoge finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 964

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.4100
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Hoge finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-ISC26-THOG

ISCO Championship: Will Tom Hoge finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Tom Hoge
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3073

YES ask: 0.8700
NO ask: 0.1400
Last: 0.8700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Hoge finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2800 + ~$0.0249 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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