Pair #9519

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-ISC26-RHOE

ISCO Championship: Will Rico Hoey finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Rico Hoey
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7034

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rico Hoey finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-ISC26-RHOE

ISCO Championship: Will Rico Hoey finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rico Hoey
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4932

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rico Hoey finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -96.50% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1000 + ~$0.0063 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -100.73% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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