Pair #9512

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-ISC26-LGRI

ISCO Championship: Will Lanto Griffin finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Lanto Griffin
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11843

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Lanto Griffin finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-ISC26-LGRI

ISCO Championship: Will Lanto Griffin finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Lanto Griffin
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7473

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Lanto Griffin finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -87.84% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0500 + ~$0.0033 est. fees
Days to maturity: 9
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -92.07% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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