Pair #951

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-MMEI

Valspar Championship: Will Mac Meissner finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 517

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mac Meissner finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MMEI

Valspar Championship: Will Mac Meissner finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Mac Meissner
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7854

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Mac Meissner finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:13:39Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 necessarily means finishing top 20 (top 10 is a subset of top 20). The reverse does not hold — top 20 does not imply top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0800
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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