Pair #9497

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-ISC26-SFIS

ISCO Championship: Will Steven Fisk finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Steven Fisk
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 8185

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.4800
Last: 0.5700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Steven Fisk finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-ISC26-SFIS

ISCO Championship: Will Steven Fisk finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Steven Fisk
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4548

YES ask: 0.9600
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Steven Fisk finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4400 + ~$0.0202 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue