Pair #9496

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-ISC26-SFIS

ISCO Championship: Will Steven Fisk finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Steven Fisk
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5819

YES ask: 0.8000
NO ask: 0.2300
Last: 0.8000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Steven Fisk finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-ISC26-SFIS

ISCO Championship: Will Steven Fisk finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Steven Fisk
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4548

YES ask: 0.9600
NO ask: 0.1000
Last: 0.9600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Steven Fisk finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.80% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1900 + ~$0.0151 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.03% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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