Pair #9484

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-ISC26-ADUM

ISCO Championship: Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 327

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adrien Dumont De Chassart finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-ISC26-ADUM

ISCO Championship: Will Adrien Dumont De Chassart finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Adrien Dumont De Chassart
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2825

YES ask: 0.4200
NO ask: 0.6200
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Adrien Dumont De Chassart finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 ISCO Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3900 + ~$0.0191 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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