Pair #947

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-NSHI

Valspar Championship: Will Neal Shipley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Neal Shipley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2399

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.6100
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Neal Shipley makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-NSHI

Valspar Championship: Will Neal Shipley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Neal Shipley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1970

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Neal Shipley finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:13:22Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 implies making the cut but the question asks about necessity in both directions — top 10 does imply making the cut, but the rules here say top 10 implies top 20 implies making the cut. Wait: finishing top 10 DOES necessitate making the cut. Let me reconsider: antecedent is top 10, consequent is make cut.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.6400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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