Pair #9443

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-AFIT

Will Alex Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Alex Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 44624

YES ask: 0.0140
NO ask: 0.9870
Last: 0.0140

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-AFIT

Will Alex Fitzpatrick win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Alex Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 505997

YES ask: 0.0140
NO ask: 0.9880
Last: 0.0140

View on Kalshi

Rules If Alex Fitzpatrick wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -5.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0010 + ~$0.0019 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -10.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue