Pair #9442

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-SGRE

Will Stuart Grehan lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Stuart Grehan
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1823

YES ask: 0.0050
NO ask: 0.9960
Last: 0.0040

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stuart Grehan is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-SGRE

Will Stuart Grehan win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Stuart Grehan
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2512

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Stuart Grehan wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): 5.87% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.9970 + ~$0.0003 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: +1.64% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue