Pair #9439

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-JSMI

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 808

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.3900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-JSMI

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Jordan L. Smith finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jordan L. Smith
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6377

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.8200
Last: 0.6000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan L. Smith finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5500 + ~$0.0215 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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