Pair #943

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-NSHI

Valspar Championship: Will Neal Shipley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Neal Shipley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2399

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.6100
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Neal Shipley makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-NSHI

Will Neal Shipley lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Neal Shipley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1550

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Neal Shipley is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:13:22Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could collapse in Round 2), and making the cut does not require leading after Round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.6200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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