Pair #9416

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-KNAK

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Keita Nakajima finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Keita Nakajima
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2626

YES ask: 0.7900
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.3600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keita Nakajima finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-KNAK

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Keita Nakajima finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Keita Nakajima
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 4296

YES ask: 0.9100
NO ask: 0.5200
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Keita Nakajima finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8500 + ~$0.0097 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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