Pair #941

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-NSHI

Valspar Championship: Will Neal Shipley finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Neal Shipley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1970

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Neal Shipley finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-NSHI

Valspar Championship: Will Neal Shipley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Neal Shipley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1977

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Neal Shipley finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:13:22Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 10 (including ties) necessarily means finishing top 20 as well. Finishing top 20 does not imply top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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