Pair #9406

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-TMCK

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Tom McKibbin finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tom McKibbin
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1438

YES ask: 0.4400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom McKibbin finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-TMCK

Will Tom McKibbin win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tom McKibbin
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 248999

YES ask: 0.0040
NO ask: 0.9970
Last: 0.0040

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tom McKibbin wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: finish-position markets in different tournaments

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -14.43% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0040 + ~$0.0003 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -18.66% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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