Pair #940

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-NSHI

Valspar Championship: Will Neal Shipley finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Neal Shipley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1977

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Neal Shipley finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-NSHI

Valspar Championship: Will Neal Shipley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Neal Shipley
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2399

YES ask: 0.5300
NO ask: 0.6100
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Neal Shipley makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:13:22Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 requires playing the weekend rounds, which means making the cut. Making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.5300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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