Pair #94

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXNBANORTHWEST-25-DEN

Will Denver win the Pro Basketball Northwest Division Winner?

Series: KXNBANORTHWEST
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 16526

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver is the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Northwest Division Winner, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXNBAWEST1SEED-25-DEN

Will Denver be the Pro Basketball Western Conference #1 Seed in the playoffs?

Series: KXNBAWEST1SEED
Entity: Denver
Expiration: 2026-04-13T14:00:00Z
Volume: 8387

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Denver is the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Western Conference #1 Seed in the playoffs, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-18T08:01:10Z

Reasoning: Winning the Northwest Division does not guarantee the #1 seed in the Western Conference — another division winner could have a better record. And the #1 seed does not necessarily require winning the Northwest Division, as the best record in the West could come from any division. No necessary implication in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

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