Pair #9394

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-CJAR

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Casey Jarvis finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Casey Jarvis
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1596

YES ask: 0.0900
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Casey Jarvis finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-CJAR

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Casey Jarvis finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Casey Jarvis
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1338

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Casey Jarvis finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2900 + ~$0.0182 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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