Pair #9359

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-JSVE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Jesper Svensson finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Jesper Svensson
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6823

YES ask: 0.4400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jesper Svensson finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-JSVE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Jesper Svensson finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jesper Svensson
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5036

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.7700
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jesper Svensson finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5700 + ~$0.0172 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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