Pair #9327

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-KKIT

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Kurt Kitayama finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Kurt Kitayama
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5857

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kurt Kitayama finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-KKIT

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Kurt Kitayama finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Kurt Kitayama
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3691

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kurt Kitayama finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3900 + ~$0.0167 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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