Pair #9314

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-KKIT

Will Kurt Kitayama lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Kurt Kitayama
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5392

YES ask: 0.0090
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0090

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kurt Kitayama is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-KKIT

Will Kurt Kitayama win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Kurt Kitayama
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 430543

YES ask: 0.0080
NO ask: 0.9930
Last: 0.0080

View on Kalshi

Rules If Kurt Kitayama wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -13.35% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0060 + ~$0.0007 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -17.58% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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