Pair #9312

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-RGER

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Ryan Gerard finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2103

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryan Gerard finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-RGER

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Ryan Gerard finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 11732

YES ask: 0.8600
NO ask: 0.6000
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ryan Gerard finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.8400 + ~$0.0098 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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