Pair #931

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-RHOE

Valspar Championship: Will Rico Hoey finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rico Hoey
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 15699

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7600
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rico Hoey finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-RHOE

Valspar Championship: Will Rico Hoey finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rico Hoey
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 14173

YES ask: 0.5900
NO ask: 0.4400
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rico Hoey finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:13:03Z

Reasoning: If Rico Hoey finishes top 10, he necessarily finishes top 20. The reverse is not true — top 20 does not guarantee top 10.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.3500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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