Pair #9306

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-RGER

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Ryan Gerard finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1725

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

Rules

If Ryan Gerard finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-RGER

Will Ryan Gerard win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1309613

YES ask: 0.0070
NO ask: 0.9940
Last: 0.0070

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Gerard wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: finish-position markets in different tournaments

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -23.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0070 + ~$0.0005 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -28.06% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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