Pair #9299

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-RGER

Will Ryan Gerard lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 26595

YES ask: 0.0200
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0080

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Rules

If Ryan Gerard is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-RGER

Will Ryan Gerard win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Ryan Gerard
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1480600

YES ask: 0.0060
NO ask: 0.9950
Last: 0.0060

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Ryan Gerard wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -11.74% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0050 + ~$0.0005 est. fees
Days to maturity: 16
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -15.97% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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