Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-AAYO
Will Angel Ayora Fanegas lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Angel Ayora Fanegas
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 17377
YES ask: 0.0070
NO ask: 0.9950
Last: 0.0060
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Angel Ayora Fanegas is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOUR-THOC26-AAYO
Will Angel Ayora Fanegas win the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Angel Ayora Fanegas
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 127166
YES ask: 0.0030
NO ask: 0.9980
Last: 0.0030
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Angel Ayora Fanegas wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A
Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
3.15%
PROFITABLE
Cost:
$0.9980
+ ~$0.0006 est. fees
Days to maturity:
17
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-1.08%
BELOW HURDLE