Pair #9276

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-WCLA

Will Wyndham Clark lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 55430

YES ask: 0.0210
NO ask: 0.9820
Last: 0.0210

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-WCLA

The Open Championship: Will Wyndham Clark finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Wyndham Clark
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4404

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Wyndham Clark finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -87.10% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0920 + ~$0.0081 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -91.33% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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