Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGATOP10-GESO26-RMCI
Genesis Scottish Open: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?
Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 59540
YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.2800
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-THOC26-RMCI
The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7678
YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.7600
Last: 0.2500
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A
Reasoning: rule: finish-position markets in different tournaments
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-98.90%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.1100
+ ~$0.0216 est. fees
Days to maturity:
10
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-103.13%
BELOW HURDLE