Pair #9248

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-GESO26-RMCI

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 32359

YES ask: 0.4900
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.2500

Rules

If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1744685

YES ask: 0.0790
NO ask: 0.9220
Last: 0.0790

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: finish-position markets in different tournaments

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -94.75% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0790 + ~$0.0051 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -98.98% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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