Pair #9245

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1744685

YES ask: 0.0790
NO ask: 0.9220
Last: 0.0790

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7678

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.7600
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOUR is a strict subset of KXPGATOP5 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1720 + ~$0.0182 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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