Pair #9229

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-RMCI

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 59540

YES ask: 0.1600
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 58125

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: finish-position markets in different tournaments

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4200 + ~$0.0257 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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