Pair #9225

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 58125

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 9297

YES ask: 0.8300
NO ask: 0.1800
Last: 0.8300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.56% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2800 + ~$0.0272 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.79% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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