Pair #9224

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 143762

YES ask: 0.0350
NO ask: 0.9720
Last: 0.0350

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 58125

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5320 + ~$0.0192 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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