Pair #922

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-ZBLA

Valspar Championship: Will Zac Blair make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Zac Blair
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 689

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Zac Blair makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-ZBLA

Valspar Championship: Will Zac Blair finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Zac Blair
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 6354

YES ask: 0.0700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Zac Blair finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:12:46Z

Reasoning: Making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish, and finishing top 10 implies making the cut (not the other way). Wait — finishing top 10 does imply making the cut, so the antecedent is top 10 implying make cut. However, the question is about KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-ZBLA as Event A: making the cut does not imply top 10. And top 10 implies making the cut.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.4900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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