Pair #9215

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 25699

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.6100
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 58125

YES ask: 0.5600
NO ask: 0.4500
Last: 0.5600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.14% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1700 + ~$0.0339 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -102.37% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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