Pair #9212

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-PREE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Patrick Reed finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 26395

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.9800
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-PREE

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Patrick Reed finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Patrick Reed
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 47605

YES ask: 0.5800
NO ask: 0.4800
Last: 0.5900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Reed finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5600 + ~$0.0184 est. fees
Days to maturity: 10
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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