Pair #9186

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-GESO26-RMAC

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 21657

YES ask: 0.8500
NO ask: 0.3500
Last: 0.6700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-GESO26-RMAC

Genesis Scottish Open: Will Robert MacIntyre finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Robert MacIntyre
Expiration: 2026-07-26T00:00:00Z
Volume: 32655

YES ask: 0.9500
NO ask: 0.3600
Last: 0.9500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Robert MacIntyre finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Genesis Scottish Open, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-11T07:45:44Z
Code version: N/A

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3000 + ~$0.0193 est. fees
Days to maturity: 11
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-11T13:09:38Z

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