Pair #918

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-ZBLA

Valspar Championship: Will Zac Blair finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Zac Blair
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 858

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Zac Blair finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-ZBLA

Valspar Championship: Will Zac Blair make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Zac Blair
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 689

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.4200
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Zac Blair makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:12:46Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 5 in the tournament necessarily means the player made the cut (you cannot finish in the top 5 overall without surviving the cut). Making the cut does not imply top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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